“There’s not a thing out there right now,” said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center. “The models aren’t showing anything developing in the short term.’’
But the season is far from over. October is historically the busiest month for hurricanes in South Florida, forecasters say.
“I think there is a perception that once Sept. 10 comes and goes, then, whew, we can breathe a sigh of relief,” said Robert Molleda, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Miami office. “We’re not saying we’re going to get hit. We might not, but it’s too early to let down your guard.”
Since 1851, hurricane center records show that 19 storms have struck South Florida in October, compared with 15 in September and 11 in August.
In October, the patterns that produce hurricanes tend to shift. Tropical waves rolling off Africa and spinning up off the Cape Verde Islands begin to dissolve as ocean waters start to cool and winds aloft begin to strengthen.
At the same time, action in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico tends to pick up as cold fronts pushing down from the north collide with the warm, moist atmosphere to the south, often sparking storms. A biweekly forecast produced by Colorado State University climate scientists Phil Klotzbach and William Gray predicts an average level of activity over the next few weeks, with potential rising toward the middle of the month.